Brier score is the mean squared error of a probabilistic forecast against the binary outcome. 0 is a perfect forecast, 0.25 is random guessing. It is the primary calibration metric for ARIAA.
Calibration is a standing discipline at ARIAA: every forecast is logged, every outcome written back, every Brier score aggregated into the calibration table. Calibration reports are part of the product.
Related
- Feasibility Verdict — The output of a feasibility analysis: feasible, infeasible, or marginal — with a margin, confidence, and explicit assumptions.
- Reachability Analysis — Computing the set of future states a system can reach from a given initial state under bounded actions and disturbances.